“We are all faced with a series of great opportunities – brilliantly disguised as insoluble problems.” – John Gardner


 Not that much to report this week. Everything is still the same with our view of lower lows in the equity market for the next three to six months. A lot depends on how much longer the Fed will be raising interest rates and how long they will keep them high. Our expectation is that the Fed will raise rates into March of next year and keep them there for an extended period of time until inflation comes down to their target rate “or” something breaks in the financial system.

If this scenario of rates is true to happen, the stock market has a long way to go down. The probability of a “soft landing” is now non existent. What we are going to see is a corporate recession starting most likely with the reporting period for the fourth quarter which will be reported in January of next year. The first quarter corporate profits will be reported in April of next year and should be even worse if the Fed remains on its probable course.

We are starting to get some “green shoots” in the bond market. We are positioned in Intermediate U.S. Treasuries. If events continue as expected we will start to extend the duration of U.S. Treasuries. We definitely want to keep default risk non-existent as we should start to see corporate bankruptcies in companies with poor balance sheets. So the key is to be ultra safe with your investments with us as we head into uncharted waters.


 As we head into the holidays, the spirit of giving comes to the forefront.  What if you had a way to give to charities of your choice and it wouldn’t cost you a single penny.  Guess what, there is such a program.  It is called the Arizona Tax Credit Funds.

Let’s assume that you will owe taxes to the State of Arizona.  The state allows you to contribute to four categories of charities and get a dollar for dollar “credit” against the taxes you owe.

Here is how it works:  Assume you will owe $2,000 to the State of Arizona on your taxable income for 2022.  If you were to donate the $2,000 to qualifuing charities, you would get a $2,000 credit on the $2,000 taxes you owe.  In other words it doesn’t cost you a penny to donate the $2,000.  What would you rather do, donate $2,000 to help people you care about or let the State of Arizona determine how they are going to spend your tax dollars?  I know how I am going to vote.

There are four categories that qualify for the Arizona Tax Credit Program.

Private Schools:  Maximum Contribution limits, $1,245 filing single and $2,483 filing joint.

Public Schools:  Maximum Contribution limits, $200 filing single, $400 filing joint.

Qualified Foster Care Organizations:  Contribution limits, $500 filing single, $1,000 filing joint.

Qualified Charitable Organizations:  Contribution limits, $400 filing single, $800 filing joint.

You have until April 15, 2023 to make your donations for the 2022 tax year, but it would be nice to donate now when there is such a need.  If you file an extension on your taxes you still need to meet the April 15, 2023 deadline for the donations.

So give it some thought.  If you need more information on donating, I can help you.  I have an extensive list of qualifying organizations, just give me a call.  If you want a hardcopy of the “Arizona Tax Credit Funds Edition” with an explanation of the program and hundreds of qualifying charities, you can email them at:  [email protected]


If you have friends or family in need of financial life planning services,

It would be the honor of Laurence Lof Financial Advisors to assist them.

We value your referrals!


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These are Larry Lof’s opinions and not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Due to our compliance review process, delayed dissemination of this commentary occurs.

The S&P 500 index of stocks compiled by Standard & Poor’s, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. The Index includes a representative sample of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

Technical analysis represents an observation of past performance and trend, and past performance and trend are no guarantee of future performance, price, or trend. The price movements within capital markets cannot be guaranteed and always remain uncertain. The allocation discussed herein is not designed based on the individual needs of any one specific client or investor. In other words, it is not a customized strategy designed on the specific financial circumstances of the client. Please consult an advisor to discuss your individual situation before making any investments decision. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Further, depending on the different types of investments, there may be varying degrees of risk including loss of original principal.

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