Quote of the Week

“We become happier, much happier, when we realize life is an opportunity rather than an obligation.” – Mary Augustine

Tech Corner

Last week the markets were mixed with the Dow, Nasdaq, and the S&P 500 up slightly and the MSCI-EAFE down slightly. We did have another volatility spike on July 7th, but the markets rallied through it like the other spikes.

This morning’s (Tuesday) big news was the Labor Department’s report that the consumer price index rose 0.9% in June unexpectedly accelerating from May’s 0.6% rise. I think we are in for a sustained inflationary period because one-third of the index is housing. Today markets reacted early by slightly selling off then rallying followed by a slight sell off into the close. This should cause interest rates to rise so we don’t want to be in interest rate sensitive investments.

President Biden signed an executive order designed to introduce more competition into the U.S. economy. The order instructs government agencies to adjust policies targeting merger review, noncompete clauses and internet policies. This follows efforts by the administration to introduce a global minimum corporate tax rate and should be seen as an effort to reign in corporate power.

Larry’s Thoughts

Here’s another great article from The Real Economy Blog that I thought you would like.  You can access it from the following link, but I have copied it for your convenience.

https://realeconomy.rsmus.com/initial-jobless-claims-imply-that-ending-benefits-does-not-improve-employment-numbers/

Initial jobless claims imply that ending benefits does not improve employment numbers

JUL. 8, 2021 BY JOSEPH BRUSUELAS

Over the past few weeks, we have observed a steady but uneven decline in first-time jobless claims on the way back to what we expect will be a range of 200,000 to 230,000, last seen before the pandemic.

To push that process along, 26 states, citing demand for workers, have ended extra unemployment benefits before they expire in September. The latest jobless claims data released by the government on Thursday is instructive and continues to imply that this policy shift has not been decisive in sending people back to work.

The data also shows that ending the benefits was almost surely not part of June’s gain of 850,000 jobs, and we do not think it will play a meaningful role in the robust employment gains we expect this summer.

First-time claims inched higher by 2,000, to 373,000, for the week ending July 3 from an upwardly revised 371,000 for the week ending June 26, according to the Labor Department.

Continuing claims fell to 3.33 million from 3.48 million for the week ending June 26, and there were still 14.2 million people on some form of unemployment compensation through the week ending June 19, a decline from 14.6 million for the week ending June 12.

Inside the claims data, one can observe the beginning of the end of the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program that provided aid to people who would traditionally not have qualified for unemployment insurance benefits.

Through the week ending July 3, only six states—Indiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma and West Virginia—reported no new claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance. And only three states—Florida, Georgia and Mississippi—reported no new claims for Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation program, another federal program that extended payments for those whose benefits had expired.

For example, in the former program, Indiana reported a drop from 103,395 for the week ending June 19 to none for the week ending June 26. In the latter, Mississippi reported a decline from 20,953 to none for the same time periods.

We do not expect a material increase in workers returning to the market until schools reopen, child care becomes more widely available and individual reservation wages—the lowest wage a worker is willing to accept to take a job—are met by firms pushing up pay to attract people back into the labor force.

For more information on how the coronavirus pandemic is affecting midsize businesses, please visit the RSM Coronavirus Resource Center.

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These are Larry Lof’s opinions and not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Due to our compliance review process, delayed dissemination of this commentary occurs.

The S&P 500 index of stocks compiled by Standard & Poor’s, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. The Index includes a representative sample of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

Technical analysis represents an observation of past performance and trend, and past performance and trend are no guarantee of future performance, price, or trend. The price movements within capital markets cannot be guaranteed and always remain uncertain. The allocation discussed herein is not designed based on the individual needs of any one specific client or investor. In other words, it is not a customized strategy designed on the specific financial circumstances of the client. Please consult an advisor to discuss your individual situation before making any investments decision. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Further, depending on the different types of investments, there may be varying degrees of risk including loss of original principal.

 

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