Quote of the Week
“Do not wait; the time will never be “just right.” Start where you stand. – Napoleon Hill
The big news last week was the unexpected good report that U.S. payrolls jumped 850,000 in June. With these gains, the private sector has now reinstated 73% of the jobs lost during the pandemic. Restaurants and hotels led the hiring as the leisure and hospitality industry added 343,000 of the new positions. We anticipate that we will see high or higher job gains in the next months as many unemployed people start to lose their benefits. The supplemental Federal benefit expires in September and many states have already cut that benefit. There currently are over 9 million job openings available.
The markets had a good week with the Dow up +1.02%, the S&P 500 up +1.67%, and the Nasdaq up +1.94%. The only loser was international markets down -1.42%.
Earnings for the second quarter will soon start to take center stage. The “year over year” earnings numbers will be unbelievably strong. However, remember the base starting point was the earnings in the second quarter of last year when the economy was pretty much shut down due to the virus.
We are still in Quad II which is good for stocks and commodities. We have been in a consolidation range for the last month. We anticipate we are at a possible point where the markets will break either up or down from here. We are watching on a daily basis and will adjust the portfolios if needed.
You’ve heard the expression, “A picture is worth 1000 words.” B. Rich, the cartoonist from our data provider Hedgeye, does a remarkable job with his comics. Here are a couple of my favorite recent cartoons.
The post-pandemic economy recovery has been very odd. We have all heard about the abundance of available jobs right now. If you have traveled recently, you know the airlines are short of workers, as are many hotels and restaurants. Yet, this still happens. I suspect with federal unemployment benefits ending and school starting, many people will return to work by Labor Day.
What about the housing market? It seems as soon as a “For Sale” sign hits the front yard, a “Sold” sign soon replaces it. That’s pretty wild, too.
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These are Larry Lof’s opinions and not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Due to our compliance review process, delayed dissemination of this commentary occurs.
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