Quote of the Week
“A comfort zone is a wonderful place but nothing ever grows there.” Unknown
We have had a few calls recently about the increase in trading in the accounts we manage for you. I will explain the reason.
In all our accounts at Cambridge that we manage for you, we have what we call core positions. These positions, according to the data and mathematics, have a positive trend which usually lasts for a period of time, usually around three months or so. If the data causes these trends to change, we will adjust accordingly.
Every day we receive a “Risk Range” from Hedgeye, our data provider. For this example, I will use Gold. Gold currently has a positive trend, so we will always have a position in Gold until the data changes. We are currently allocating between a minimum of 10% and a maximum of 20% of your portfolios to Gold.
As of today, the “Risk Range” for Gold is $1,703 on the low end and $1,766 on the high end. The current price of Gold is $1,735, which is in the middle of the range.
What we are doing is when Gold is near the low end of the price range, we will maximize our position at 20% because we want to buy it at a low price. If Gold moves to the high end of the risk range, we will sell half of the position to capture the profit. We are only selling half of the 20% maximum position because the overall trend is positive, and Gold could continue to go higher, and we don’t want to miss out on the positive trend.
For example, on March 8 we sold half of the 20% position when it was near the high end of the range, then Gold moved down near the bottom end of the “Risk Range” so we added back a 5% exposure on March 29 for a total of 15%.
Because Gold is now in the middle of the range, we will do nothing and remain patient until it moves towards the bottom or top end of the range.
We are currently using this technique on Gold and US Treasuries. We have waited and watched to be sure this works before instituting this strategy. This strategy won’t have a giant effect on the portfolios, but we may as well take advantage of the mathematics when we can.
Fellow Arizonans, have you heard? Service Arizona, the website that enabled us to renew our vehicle registrations and more, has undergone changes that you might appreciate knowing. The following article is five weeks old, but it still offers valuable information for AZ drivers. I’m excited about all the tasks we can now take care of from our home computers and not have to wait in lines at the Motor Vehicle Department.
MVD online services restored after computer upgrade
A project to modernize the computer system driving services for the Arizona Department of Transportation Motor Vehicle Division was successfully implemented over a three-day shutdown, providing better services for customers with a range of new online features.
Services at MVD offices and those provided at Authorized Third Party offices remain unavailable for the time being while the computer system transition is finalized and tested.
Customers will notice immediate improvements to the online services, which can be accessed directly at azmvdnow.gov. AZ MVD Now includes a secure, personal account that all current MVD customers may activate through the azmvdnow.gov website or through ServiceArizona.com.
ServiceArizona.com — the state’s long-standing portal for online services — will now be available only for registration renewals, viewing available specialty plates, getting a motor vehicle record, ordering a replacement license or ID, obtaining a three-day permit and voter registration. For all other services, customers will be automatically redirected to their azmvdnow.gov account.
In addition to all the services available at ServiceArizona.com, azmvdnow.gov allows customers to do basic title transfers, create prepaid vouchers and add funds to a personal account, view and then order specialty plates, request refunds, manage insurance documents, check title activity, make office appointments and access approximately 30 more services.
Due to the current public health situation, once full services are restored to MVD offices, those locations will still operate by appointment only for essential transactions that must be done in person. Appointments can be made using the statewide customer service number at 602.712.2700 during weekday business hours.
Hours of operation and services provided at Authorized Third Party offices are established by those providers and may vary. For more information, please visit azdot.gov
“MVD online services restored after computer upgrade.” AZDOT, April 21 2020, https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/AZDOT/bulletins/287a47e
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These are the opinions of Larry Lof and not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Due to our compliance review process, delayed dissemination of this commentary occurs.
The S&P 500 is an index of stocks compiled by Standard & Poor’s, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. The Index includes a representative sample of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the US economy. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
Technical analysis represents an observation of past performance and trend, and past performance and trend are no guarantee of future performance, price, or trend. The price movements within capital markets cannot be guaranteed and always remain uncertain. The allocation discussed herein is not designed based on the individual needs of any one specific client or investor. In other words, it is not a customized strategy designed on the specific financial circumstances of the client. Please consult an advisor to discuss your individual situation before making any investments decision. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Further, depending on the different types of investments, there may be varying degrees of risk including loss of original principal.