Quote of the Week
“If you believe it will work out, you’ll see opportunities. If you believe it won’t, you will see obstacles.” – Wayne Dyer
Last week was another up week for the equity markets. It certainly wasn’t as good as the prior week but, most of the equity indexes were up between 1% and 2%. Last week was also the high for the yield on the 10-yr Treasury Bond this year. March has been the worst month in the last forty years for bond performance. The 10-yr interest rate rose from a low of 1.70% on March 1st to a high of 2.49% on March 25th. For those keeping score, that is a 46.5% increase in rates which is unprecedented. Remember, when interest rates rise, bond prices go down. The rate has dropped down to 2.40% as of this writing.
On the positive side, historically when bond prices fall this much the following twelve months’ returns are in the positive double digits.
Is there any economic event that would cause this huge movement in the bond market? You bet there is and his name is Vladimir Putin. Just match the date of the invasion to the date interest rates started their unprecedented rise. We are of the opinion that the bond market has overreacted.
It is not unrealistic to see why the bond market has acted like it has. Let’s go down the list. First, oil prices have shot up, which is understandable considering that a lot of Russian oil has come off the market with more to come off the market. Second, food prices have risen due to the fact Russia and Ukraine make up 45% of the world’s wheat supply and 55% of the world’s sunflower oil, both of which go into the world’s food supply. Add to that, the U.S. economy is running very hot, with widespread labor shortages.
We do not expect this inflation trend to continue at such a hot pace. If you look under the hood, many of the components of inflation are starting to roll over to the downside. The one commodity that could be the “fly in the soup” would be oil prices.
An economic event that is just starting to happen is that the yield curve is about to invert. Let me explain. When the yield curve inverts, it means that the interest rate on the two year Treasury Note exceeds the interest rate on the 10-year Treasury Bond. The U.S. Treasury bond yield curve is about to invert for the first time in three years. If this inversion happens and the trend is almost unstoppable, the economy will slip into a recession. According to a study from the San Francisco Federal Reserve, a sustained inverted yield curve has preceded all of the nine recessions that the U.S. economy has suffered since 1955.
What does this mean if it happens? Interest rates will fall, which favors bond prices, and the stock market will also fall. So events are setting up as we expected with the U.S. economy going into a deep Quad IV. The process into Quad IV was interrupted by Mr. Putin.
When I was younger, some friends used to boast that they’d run up big bills and live life large. After all, when they died, it wouldn’t be their problem. I always figured the surviving family members would suffer with outstanding bills. When this article from AARP crossed my desk, I learned the answer. What Happens to Your Debts After You Die?
What Happens to Your Debts After You Die?
5 things loved ones will have to do to settle your accounts
by Patricia Amend, AARP, Updated March 10, 2022
How many times have you told your loved ones that you don’t want to be a burden, and saddle them with a financial mess at the end of your life? It’s a common sentiment.
Despite their good intentions, however, many people do leave a pile of bills. So, what happens to unpaid bills, and how can you make sure that your loved ones don’t have to spend too much time getting those bills paid?
Better to start a plan now, should you become incapacitated or die prematurely, says Greg Giardino, a Certified Financial Planner (CFP) at J.M. Franklin & Co., LLC, in Tarrytown, New York. “To help things go as smoothly as possible, make sure that you have granted power of attorney, a legal document that appoints someone — a personal representative, estate executor or administrator — to act on your behalf, whether it is for your financial, medical or property affairs.”
Doing so will lighten the load for your grieving loved ones who must announce your passing, write your obituary, arrange your funeral, empty your home, and disperse your belongings, among other things.
Following are more tasks to consider. Be sure to consult a financial adviser, estate attorney or CPA for advice, as needed.
1. Start by getting — and staying — organized
If you haven’t done so, compile your most important documents — bank, brokerage and retirement accounts; insurance policies; will or estate plan, living will, power of attorney; and your health care, Social Security and Medicare records. In the process, simplify if you can; multiple bank and credit card accounts can make things more complicated, says Martin Hewitt, special counsel at Fried, Frank, Harris, Shriver & Jacobson, LLP in New York, and a commissioner to the American Bar Association’s Commission on Law and Aging.
Don’t forget your digital assets. Hewett recommends making a list of the account numbers, as well as the usernames and passwords for every online account, including email, e-commerce and social media.
Now, familiarize yourself with both the low-tech (a fireproof briefcase or backpack) and digital options (a thumb drive for your laptop or online document storage service) for storing this vital information. Tell two individuals how to access these records — as well as extra house and car keys — in the event of your death or incapacitation, or a natural disaster. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) offers a handy checklist for assembling such materials in its Emergency Financial First Aid Kit (EFFAK).
2. Figure out what you owe
Now, create an honest accounting of every liability you have now, or may have in the future, on a spreadsheet, and update it at least once a year. Include your mortgage, credit cards, personal loans, student loans or medical debts, as well as any loans you may have cosigned for others.
A person’s financial obligations are not automatically forgiven once they’ve died. According to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, in most cases, any unpaid debts are covered by the person’s estate — the total assets owned at death. If the individual appointed a personal representative, executor or administrator, he or she is responsible for paying any debts from the estate, including medical debt.
Debts must be settled before heirs receive any money. If there is no will, a judge will decide how the assets should be distributed, and will appoint an administrator to carry out those decisions.
Also, consider your insurance needs. Are you planning to self-fund your long-term care, or should you buy insurance? How will your funeral expenses be covered? “Insurance planning can be buy time for grieving loved ones with debts to pay,” says Giardino. “When life insurance proceeds are paid out, they usually sit in a safe, liquid account. The beneficiary is provided with a checkbook to use to make withdrawals against the account as needed.”
3. Keep your estate plan current
Your personal representative or executor will be responsible for paying your debts, including medical bills, from those assets. If the debt is in the decedent’s name, the decedent’s estate will be responsible, says Rachael K. Pirner, Esq, a lawyer in Wichita, Kansas, and a fellow of the American College of Trust and Estate Counsel.
There are exceptions, however, so Pirner recommends leaving instructions for your representative to consult a probate lawyer before making any payments. Legal fees can be paid by the estate. “Most state bar associations have a lawyer referral service, which is a good place to start,” Pirner says.
Obtaining legal advice may be wise for other reasons. “Parents are responsible for the deceased minor children’s ‘necessaries’ and spouses for the deceased spouse’s ‘necessaries,’” Pirner says. In other words, goods or services required for sustenance or support of that person. A lawyer can define them for you.
In addition, if you cosigned for a loan, your estate will be responsible. Similarly, if you are a joint account holder on a credit card you will be responsible for any balances on the card. To be clear, a joint account holder is different from an “authorized user,” who is not usually responsible for the amount owed.
Creditors, of course, also have their rights, says Hewitt. “They can file claims in probate [i.e., the legal process of establishing the validity of a will] and can sue any of your heirs if they try to bypass the probate process.”
4. Consider state law
While statutes differ, in your state, a spouse may be responsible for certain debts. For example, the law may require the estate executor or administrator to pay an outstanding bill out of property owned jointly by the surviving and deceased spouse, such as a joint checking or brokerage account. In community property states — Alaska (if a special agreement is signed), Arizona, California, Idaho, Louisiana, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas, Washington, and Wisconsin — the surviving spouse may be required to use community property to pay debts of a deceased spouse. If there was no joint account, cosigner, or other exception, the estate of the deceased person owes the debt.
What if your debts exceed your estate’s assets? State statute will direct who gets paid and how much, Hewitt says. “An insolvent probate is like a bankruptcy with the unpaid balances being written off by the creditors. On joint accounts, the creditors can generally collect from any joint account holder. Often, the best course of action on an insolvent estate is to turn it over to an attorney or to the court public administrator (if the court has one).”
5. Instruct your representative to take their time
Fortunately, your estate won’t need to be settled immediately, and things should be done step by step to avoid errors. Some final bills, such as those for medical care, may take some time to come. “Generally, there is a minimum period in state probate law for creditors to present a claim, or let the estate know they are owed money,” Hewitt says. “On average this is between three and six months. If there is more than enough money to pay all debts, they can be paid sooner.”
What about debt collectors? To avoid these calls, your representative should advise any creditors that you have passed, and that they are working on settling your estate. If reasonable progress is being made, most will be understanding, says Pirner. “By law, if the estate is filed for probate, the creditors need to file claims, and will do so. If a creditor persists, and the debt is in the decedent’s name only, your representative should consult a lawyer.”
Patricia Amend has been a lifestyle writer and editor for 30 years. She was a staff writer at Inc. magazine; a reporter at the Fidelity Publishing Group; and a senior editor at Published Image, a financial education company that was acquired by Standard & Poor’s.
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