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QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“Sometimes you climb out of bed in the morning and you think, “I’m not going to make it”, but you laugh inside remembering all the times you’ve felt that way” – Charles Bukowski

TECH CORNER


Where is the Recession?

I follow multiple investment people online. One who I have great respect for is Stephanie Pomboy. She has her own research firm.

I just listened to a podcast where she was interviewed on The Thoughtful Money site. We believe in following the data because the data will be correct in the long-term. Here are a few of the statistics she discussed on the podcast. 

+ Consumer Confidence report came in much weaker than expected.

+ The consumer is drawing down savings and increasing credit card balances just to pay for necessities. Credit card balances are at the level just after the Great Recession of 2008-2009. This is a tale of two economies. The highend consumer is doing fine but the lower end consumer is really hurting.

+ Last quarter’s GDP came in at +1.6% which is a slowdown from the prior quarter. Of the +1.6%, 1.2% was the consumer spending on housing, healthcare, and insurance which are necessary items. That really doesn’t contribute to growth.

+ Another indicator of trouble ahead is the consumer spending in restaurants. In January the National Restaurant Association reported the lowest level of spending since Covid ended. There was a slight increase in February, but the spending went down back to the January level. Already McDonald’s and Starbucks are reporting major declines in sales. Red Lobster just closed 60 locations and many more restaurant chains are reporting declines is business. The ISM services index last month recorded a reading of 46. A score of 50 is breakeven. A score above 50 indicates growth and a score under 50 indicates contraction.

+ Many companies had a hard time finding and getting quality employees after the COVID recession. Now as business is slowing companies are reluctant to lay anyone off but they are cutting employee hours. Full-time jobs have actually decreased -1.5% over the last year and part time employment has exploded. The consumer now needs two jobs to meet expenses. 

+  Let’s talk about earnings in the S&P 500. Last quarter the top 10 companies accounted for 1/3 of the earnings. The top 100 accounted for75% of the earnings. The bottom 100 actually lost money last quarter. 

I could go on and on, but the direction of the economy is pretty clear. 

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These are Larry Lof’s opinions and not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Due to our compliance review process, delayed dissemination of this commentary occurs.

The S&P 500 index of stocks compiled by Standard & Poor’s, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. The Index includes a representative sample of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

Technical analysis represents an observation of past performance and trend, and past performance and trend are no guarantee of future performance, price, or trend. The price movements within capital markets cannot be guaranteed and always remain uncertain. The allocation discussed herein is not designed based on the individual needs of any one specific client or investor. In other words, it is not a customized strategy designed on the specific financial circumstances of the client. Please consult an advisor to discuss your individual situation before making any investments decision. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Further, depending on the different types of investments, there may be varying degrees of risk including loss of original principal.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a Broker/Dealer, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor. Cambridge and Laurence Lof Financial Advisors, LLC are not affiliated. Laurence Lof Financial Advisors 4757 E Camp Lowell Drive Tucson AZ 85712 info@lofadvisors.com

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