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QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“See the world as a big wardrobe.  Everybody has his own costume.  There is only one that fits you perfectly. – George Harris

TECH CORNER


Sorry I have not published the weekly Your Money, Our Thoughts for a couple of weeks. I have been fighting a bout of a COVID infection. I am better now.

One of the indicators to pay attention to is the ISM Manufacturing Index. A reading of 50 is neutral, numbers above 50 indicates expansion and readings below 50 indicate contraction of the U.S. economy. A reading below 47 is a serious danger sign.

The reading for May came in at 48.7 lagging the consensus expectation of 49.7.

The major measures of activity were mostly lower in May. The new orders index declined from 49.1 to 45.4 and the production index fell from 51.3 to 50.2. Activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector has now contracted for eighteen out of the last nineteen months.

I understand that we have been predicting a recession for over a year now. Factors such as increased government spending and an excess of liquidity in the money supply have forestalled the recession to this point. 

What we like to look at is the trend in economic activity. Some trends we are still seeing include declining revenue in the corporate sector, declining liquidity, and a slow but steady decline in the employment sector. We will be getting the new employment report this week which will tell us a lot more.

I can’t tell you when the recession will arrive, but the trend is slow but steady in that direction.

We are still positioning the portfolios in a safety-first position. At this point in time, we don’t want to be investing against the trends.

If you have friends or family in need of financial life planning services,

It would be the honor of Laurence Lof Financial Advisors to assist them.

We value your referrals!

These are Larry Lof’s opinions and not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Due to our compliance review process, delayed dissemination of this commentary occurs.

The S&P 500 index of stocks compiled by Standard & Poor’s, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. The Index includes a representative sample of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. Indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

Technical analysis represents an observation of past performance and trend, and past performance and trend are no guarantee of future performance, price, or trend. The price movements within capital markets cannot be guaranteed and always remain uncertain. The allocation discussed herein is not designed based on the individual needs of any one specific client or investor. In other words, it is not a customized strategy designed on the specific financial circumstances of the client. Please consult an advisor to discuss your individual situation before making any investments decision. Investing in securities involves risk of loss. Further, depending on the different types of investments, there may be varying degrees of risk including loss of original principal.

Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a Broker/Dealer, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor. Cambridge and Laurence Lof Financial Advisors, LLC are not affiliated. Laurence Lof Financial Advisors 4757 E Camp Lowell Drive Tucson AZ 85712 info@lofadvisors.com

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State Disclosure: Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a Broker/Dealer, Member FINRA/SPIC. Investment advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor. Cambridge and Lof Laurence Lof Financial Advisors, LLC are not affiliated. Investment products and services available only to residents of: Arizona (AZ), California (CA), Colorado (CO), Florida (FL), Idaho (ID), Indiana (IN), Michigan (MI), Massachusetts (MA), Minnesota (MN), Montana (MT), North Carolina (NC), North Dakota (ND), New Mexico (NM), Oregon (OR), Ohio (OH), Pennsylvania (PA), Texas (TX), Virginia (VA), Wisconsin (Wl), Wyoming (WY). We are licensed to sell insurance products in the following states of: Arizona (AZ), California (CA), Colorado (CO), Florida (FL), Idaho (ID), Indiana (IN), Michigan (MI), Montana (MT), North Dakota (ND), New Mexico (NM), Oregon (OR), Pennsylvania (PA), Virginia (VA), Wisconsin (Wl).
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