QUOTE OF THE WEEK
“The moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease forever to be able to do it.”
- J.M. Barrie
TECH CORNER
Just a short note this week.
First, we want to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving. I also want to wish for Oregon State to beat Oregon so that Arizona can play for the Pac 12 Championship.
The stock markets have recently been rallying due to the Fed pausing raising interest rates. They kept them to low longer than they should have which fueled inflation and upward speculation in the stock and real estate markets. Then when inflation got out of control, they raised rates at an unprecedented fast rate and raised them too high. In my opinion this qualifies as complete mismanagement of the situation.
The stock market thinks that we are going to have a “soft landing”, however the data says not so fast.
Many economists that I follow say we are already in a recession.
For example, here are a few recent reports.
*People who have asked for an increase in their spending limits has gone up a record +17.8% year over year.
*82% of states reported an increase in unemployment claims. Since 1976 this high percentage has occurred nine times with eight of the nine coming during a recession.
*Part time worker employment has started to decline. This has happens before recessions.
*The Leasing Indicator Index has declined for the 19th straight month. This has only been surpassed by the Great Recession of 2008-2009 and the brutal recession of 1974.
*The Conference Board’s recession trigger for the Leading Economic Indicators is -4.5%. October’s reading was -7.3%.
In the managed accounts we are still positioned for safety in a Money Market and ultra short term Treasuries. In the variable annuities we are positioned for safety in intermediate duration high quality bond funds.
Source: Danelle Di Martino Booth
