Investment Management
Our investment philosophy is to give clients the opportunity to reach their long-term financial goals through a combination of sound research, diversification and disciplined investing.
Our Philosophy
Our investment philosophy revolves around the belief that the business cycle significantly affects the stock market’s performance and that macro factor models can be useful in navigating short-term market movements. We strive to protect and grow our client’s assets over the long term by carefully monitoring the economic environment and utilizing sophisticated modeling techniques. At the heart of our philosophy is a disciplined approach that emphasizes the importance of analyzing market trends across three different time frames: Secular (5 to 30 years), Cyclical (1 to 5 years), and Tactical (1 to 12 months).
This is what we do and we do it well.
Secular Analysis
For Secular analysis, we examine long-term economic and demographic trends to identify industries and companies likely to benefit from these trends over the next 5 to 20 years – sometimes more. Our investment strategy in this time frame focuses on identifying long-term growth opportunities, such as emerging markets or innovative companies in rapidly growing sectors. We maintain a diversified portfolio that balances exposure to these growth opportunities with more established companies that provide stability and income.
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Cyclical Analysis
In the Cyclical timeframe, we focus on shorter-term trends that will impact the stock market over the next 1 to 5 years. These include interest rates, inflation, and business cycles. By closely monitoring these trends, we can adjust our investment strategy to take advantage of opportunities and avoid risks. We typically allocate more of our client’s assets to equities during economic expansion. In contrast, during an economic contraction, we focus on more defensive investments, such as high-credit quality bonds, which provide safety and stability during volatile market conditions.
Source: Omega Squared proprietary research of the business cycle, 12/31/2018. Annualized monthly returns from January 1970 – December 2018. Returns are defined as follows: Equities – MSCI U.S. Total Return Index. High Yield Bonds – U.S. High Yield Bond Index. Investment Grade Bonds – Investment Grade Bond Index. Treasuries – 10-Year U.S. Treasuries.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We know what these economic conditions are with our macro regime framework, which uses machine learning algorithms to classify the six business cycle stages and accurately predict the stage of the business cycle. The six business cycle stages are recession, recovery, early expansion, mid-expansion, late expansion, and imminent recession. Knowing which asset classes perform well or poorly during different business cycle stages is crucial for portfolio success. Understanding this helps investors decide where to allocate their resources, optimize their portfolios, and generate better long-term returns.
Our Advisors Are Held To A Fiduciary Standard
Tactical Analysis
Finally, in the Tactical time frame, we focus on short-term trends that impact the market over the next 1 to 12 months. We examine the direction of specific short-term economic factors to make informed predictions about the trajectory of assets that those drivers impact. We focus on risk factors significantly influencing financial markets, including economic growth, credit risk, monetary policy risk, real rates, liquidity, inflation expectations, currency, and commodities. Not all of these factors influence each asset class, but our analysis is able to identify what asset classes are sensitive to what factors. By analyzing the elements of return, we can determine whether they are trending upwards or downwards and make informed assumptions about the overall economic landscape in a more tactical (short-term) timeframe. This allows us to shorten the investment approach’s time horizon.
Conclusion
By taking a disciplined approach to analyzing market trends across these three different time frames, we aim to maximize returns while minimizing risk for our clients. Our philosophy centers on long-term growth opportunities, adjusting our strategy to cyclical trends, and taking advantage of tactical options to navigate changing market conditions and build portfolios that meet our client’s unique needs and goals.
